Key takeaways:

1. Reiterating: Profit-based recession is likely with major credit events

2. Reiterating: Risk of recession > risk of inflation

3. Reiterating: Fed pivot unlikely

It’s been an eventful start to this year. We have already had the 2nd and 3rd largest bank collapses of all time. The CPI calculation has changed for the first time in years. Mortgage rates hit 7.1% for the first time since 1993, and we are only three months into 2023. It’s only April and 2023 is already a year that will be remembered.